FX Updates
Stable Market Minute - 29th December 2025: Quiet Markets, Busy Calendar Ahead
Catch up on all the economic news you need to know in under a minute - the time it takes to blink 20 times.
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Currency markets have started the day in a subdued mood, with little movement across the major pairs as year-end conditions continue to dampen trading activity. Sterling is holding steady against both the euro and the US dollar, with GBP/EUR trading around 1.1450 and GBP/USD near 1.35. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is hovering just below 1.18. This lack of momentum is typical for this time of year, when liquidity is thinner and many market participants are on the sidelines.
That calm, however, may not last for long. The coming days bring several key economic data releases that could inject fresh direction into markets.
First up are the US Federal Reserve minutes from December, due tomorrow. These will be closely scrutinised for insight into policymakers’ thinking on inflation, interest rates and the broader economic outlook. Closely linked to this will be US jobless claims data, released on Wednesday. The market is currently expecting claims to come in at around 220,000, and any meaningful deviation from that level could influence expectations around the strength of the US labour market and, by extension, the dollar.
Attention will also turn eastward midweek, with the release of Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing data. Factory activity in China has faced a challenging year, marked by eight months of contracting growth. Although it has been three months since the announcement of a trade truce, increased external manufacturing competition continues to weigh on the outlook, keeping a lid on any meaningful recovery.
In the commodities space, both gold and silver are easing back after recently hitting record highs, suggesting a period of consolidation. Crude oil, meanwhile, is trading higher this morning, supported by optimism around progressive peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.
In short, markets may look quiet on the surface, but with several influential data points ahead, the next few sessions could prove more eventful than recent price action suggests.