Weekly Market Update: Nov 14 2025 - Softer Dollar, Firmer Pound

Uneven economic prints and shifting narratives underpin a tentative turn in FX flows. USD showed signs of softening, while EUR and GBP found intermittent support amid policy divergence and growth concerns.

US: USD shows cracks

Early-week support for the US dollar faded as labour and activity data pointed to emerging soft spots. With fewer major US releases due to the recent government shutdown and limited forward-looking guidance, markets struggled to justify further broad-based USD strength.

Implication: The dollar may be losing momentum, raising the possibility of a broader consolidation phase after months of resilience.

Eurozone: EUR trading cautiously higher

Eurozone data remained muted, with only modest improvements in industrial output and ongoing signs of structural softness across core economies. However, with the European Central Bank maintaining a steady policy stance and USD momentum easing, the euro found pockets of support.

Implication: EURUSD remains range-bound but is tilting more constructively as global flows become less USD-centric.

UK: GBP benefits from support but remains fragile

UK economic activity contracted slightly in September, and industrial indicators continued to highlight weak domestic momentum. Even so, the pound attracted some support as relative value improved against the softening USD.

Implication: GBP remains sensitive to domestic data and BOE expectations but may stabilise if broader USD weakness persists.

FX Snapshot & what to watch

• EURUSD: Edging towards the top of its recent 1.17–1.18 range as USD softness filters through.
• GBPUSD: Recovering from recent lows, though resistance around 1.345–1.350 remains firm and support near 1.320 continues to act as a key line in the sand.
• EURGBP: Briefly pushed towards 0.884 before easing, reflecting softness in both UK and eurozone data.
  

Watch list: US inflation and labour data, UK CPI inflation, and upcoming ECB communications.

Outlook

The overarching narrative this week is that dollar dominance is no longer assured. While neither EUR nor GBP is showing runaway strength, both are benefiting from the shift in global FX sentiment. EUR looks the better-positioned of the two, while GBP’s path remains dependent on whether UK data stops deteriorating.

This update does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.