FX Updates
Stable Market Minute - 9th February 2026: Currency Whipsaw
Currency whipsaw as UK growth and US jobs data surprises - the Market Minute from Alistair at Stable.
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Last week, the currency markets experienced significant fluctuations, driven by unexpected economic data release imprints. UK GDP for Q4 posted a modest 0.1% growth, falling short of the anticipated 0.2%. Additionally, UK industrial production and manufacturing figures significantly underperformed expectations, adding pressure to the market.
Across the pond, the US job report delivered a surprise, with figures nearly doubling expectations at 70,000 jobs, creating a whipsaw effect on the GBP/USD exchange rate. Despite these economic tremors rumbling in the background, Keir Starmer successfully navigated threats to his leadership, adding a tentative layer of stability to the political landscape.
Currently, GBP/EUR is trading at 1.15, GBP/USD at 1.3650, and EUR/USD at 1.1850. Looking ahead, this week promises more pivotal data releases. UK employment data is scheduled for Tuesday, followed by UK inflation figures on Wednesday. These will be closely analysed by the Bank of England money policy committee, especially after last month's narrow split decision on interest rates.
As the week progresses, Friday will bring UK retail sales and US inflation data for December. Given recent adverse weather conditions in January and shifting consumer spending habits, the UK retail sales figure is projected to show a slower growth of 0.2% compared to December's 0.4%.
Looking for more insights? Check out Stable's 'Planning for 2026' guide for more practical tips and actionable analysis to help you get a jump on the year ahead.