Stable Market Minute - 10th August 2026: Sterling holds as rate hike bets build and data week looms

GBP/USD sits at 1.3495 as the Bank of England holds rates for a fifth consecutive meeting and markets price in a Q4 hike. A packed week of data lies ahead.

Key takeaways

• GBP/USD at 1.3495 and EUR/USD at 1.1559 as the US dollar softens on improving risk sentiment.
• The Bank of England held rates for a fifth consecutive meeting, but the six-to-three vote split signals growing pressure to hike in Q4.
• US inflation is forecast to ease to 3.4% on Wednesday; UK GDP figures on Thursday are the key domestic data point.
• Bank of England research shows AI has increased productivity in software and IT consulting by a factor of ten — relevant for finance teams evaluating AI investment.
• Non-bank lenders provided £13bn of the £21bn in UK theme lending in H1 2026, underlining a genuinely competitive asset finance market.
• Apollo's easyJet acquisition is complete; the carrier is taking on £3bn of debt and targeting business travellers in a significant strategic pivot.

Currency snapshot: USD softens across the board

Sterling dollar opened the week at 1.3495, euro dollar at 1.1559, and sterling euro at 1.1672. The US dollar is trading softer across the board, reflecting a broader recovery in risk appetite as American equity indices push higher.

Equity markets: strong rallies in the US and UK

The NASDAQ is trading just under 30,000 points, while the S&P 500 has put on a 6% gain over the past ten days, now sitting at 7,768. The FTSE 100 is trading just under 11,000 points — an 8.5% advance since May, when the index was rangebound around 10,000 points. Crude oil is at $78.20 per barrel, a touch higher than last week.

Bank of England: fifth consecutive hold, but the vote is shifting

The Bank of England held interest rates at its most recent meeting — the fifth consecutive decision to hold. What has changed is the voting split: the Monetary Policy Committee voted six to three in favour of keeping rates on hold, suggesting growing dissent.

Money markets are now pricing a rate hike from the Bank later this year, most likely in Q4. The timing will depend heavily on where inflation and the UK jobs market stand in the months ahead. Treasurers holding GBP-denominated debt or planning significant borrowing should keep this on the radar.

Bank of England research: AI is boosting IT sector productivity tenfold

Alongside the rate decision, the Bank published a notable piece of research on AI and productivity. Software and IT consulting firms — sectors many assumed would face disruption from AI — have in fact seen productivity improve by a factor of ten. For finance leaders evaluating AI adoption within their own operations, this research is worth reading directly.

Key data to watch this week

Tuesday brings the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision, with markets expecting rates to be held at 4.35%. On Wednesday, German CPI is forecast at 2.8%, followed by US inflation data expected to ease slightly from 3.5% to 3.4% — both headline and core (excluding food and energy) figures will be published.

Thursday sees UK GDP figures, with markets looking for 0.4% growth against 0.6% in the prior quarter. US Producer Price Index data excluding food and energy also lands on Thursday. Friday rounds out the week with US retail sales — a useful read on the health of consumer spending heading into the autumn.

UK theme lending: non-bank lenders take a growing share

A report from Fintech News wrapped up the first half of 2026 for theme lending in the UK. Businesses received £21 billion in lending across the first six months of the year to fund machinery, equipment, and vehicles. Of that total, £13 billion came from non-bank lenders — a clear indicator of the competitive, diversified lending market now operating alongside the traditional tier-one banks. For CFOs seeking asset finance, the non-bank channel is no longer a secondary option.

easyJet acquired by Apollo: £3bn debt and a push upmarket

The Apollo acquisition of easyJet completed last week. Early commentary from the new ownership focuses on improving profit per customer, with a stated ambition to target business travellers — a significant strategic shift for a carrier built on low-cost leisure travel. Apollo is taking on £3 billion of debt to fund the next phase of growth. Whether premiumisation can be executed at easyJet's scale will be one of the more interesting corporate stories to follow in the months ahead.

Next steps

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